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Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are generational talents in the midst of their primes. They’re also unemployed as of this writing.
Eventually, both free agents will sign. Will it be with a clear-cut contender on the verge of a title?
Maybe. Then again, maybe not.
The San Diego Padres, no one’s idea of an MLB juggernaut, could upend the offseason in a major way by inking one or both of the winter’s most coveted targets.
That’s not idle speculation. According to Jon Heyman of FanCred, the Padres have “checked in” on both Machado and Harper. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic echoed Heyman’s reporting and said that while the Pads “are more likely to spend big next offseason than they are this one, they are not ruling out a run at Machado or Harper at the right price.”
That last bit is important. Machado and Harper entered the winter with visions of $300-plus million contracts dancing in their heads. Now, with spring training fast approaching, they might have to settle for less. Getting nine figures feels like a foregone conclusion, but the realities of today’s tepid MLB market may bump the pair below $200 million.
If so, the Friars could emerge as chaos-inducing, out-of-left-field suitors.
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The Machado-Harper rumors have mostly centered on perennial big spenders (the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees) and up-and-coming clubs with payroll to burn (the Chicago White Sox and Philadelphia Phillies). The Washington Nationals and Chicago Cubs also seem like plausible landing spots for Harper.
You could toss in every other contender, at least in theory. But the Padres? Come on.
We’re talking about a franchise that hasn’t enjoyed a winning season since 2010 and hasn’t qualified for the postseason since 2006. In no way do the Padres sound like players for the winter’s glitziest stars.
But in a world where a pair of superstars entering their age-26 seasons are languishing unsigned in late January, anything is possible.
Consider: Last offseason, the Padres signed first baseman Eric Hosmer to an eight-year, $144 million contract. It didn’t work out especially well, as Hosmer underperformed on offense and defense and posted minus-0.1 WAR, according to FanGraphs’ calculation.
San Diego might be hesitant to make more big-money investments. On the other hand, it plays in a relatively soft division and could be ready for a dramatic move.
The Dodgers are the toast of the National League West on the heels of two consecutive National League pennants, but they haven’t made any seismic signings this winter after extending ace Clayton Kershaw.
The Colorado Rockies are looking to build on two straight wild-card berths but haven’t noticeably bolstered their roster.
The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants are stuck between rebuilds and retools and don’t figure to be especially dangerous.
That leaves an opening for the Padres to blossom ahead of schedule behind a farm system Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter ranked No. 1 in baseball. Take burgeoning studs such as infielder Fernando Tatis Jr. and left-hander MacKenzie Gore, add an established star, and stir.
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Inking Harper or Machado wouldn’t make the Padres champions overnight. Guys like Tatis and Gore are likely a year or more away. San Diego needs to allow its young players to mature before they can contribute.
But in this slow-developing free-agent market, the Friars could swoop in and change the game—quite literally.
As recently as 2015, Padres general manager A.J. Preller added expensive players such as Craig Kimbrel and Matt Kemp in the hopes of contending. Once that blueprint fizzled, San Diego went lean at the big league level while adding MiLB chips.
Is this the moment to go all-in?
It might be, after the Padres re-financed their debt and opened up the option of looser purse strings, as Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported.
The Padres are an under-the-radar outfit. They don’t boast a long history of winning (two pennants and zero titles) nor do they play in a big-time market.
That said, the weather in San Diego is amazing, and any player who signed there could put the franchise on the map.
Imagine, for example, helping the Yankees win championship No. 28 versus helping the Padres win championship No. 1. There’s glory in both, but hoisting the first Commissioner’s Trophy in Padres history would arguably be more notable.
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Harper seems destined for a massive market with his brash personality and “make baseball fun again” antics. Machado, likewise, ought to play for a club with title aspirations.
Harper has compiled 30.7 WAR next to Machado’s 30.2 as a big leaguer, per FanGraphs. Even if you don’t adore WAR as a stat, that’s undeniably good.
The Padres aren’t the favorites to sign either or both stars, but San Diego’s credible entrance into the Harper-Machado sweepstakes injects an alluring who-can-say curveball.
Will the Pads ink one or both of the best available free agents?
Maybe not. But…maybe?
All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball Reference.
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