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Let’s forget about what will happen during 2018-19’s trade season and instead focus on what might take place if all teams engaged in purely rational decisions. Name value holds no sway here as we seek to break down the should-be market value of the top players potentially on the block, just as we did in both 2018 and 2017.
As stated in those previous editions, we’re getting objective to give you a better idea of how to evaluate any trades that do come to fruition. These hypothetical deals, though involving teams that might get busy before the February deadline, are not predictions of what will happen. They’re meant to be realistic options that most accurately show the level of return teams should expect for their most coveted assets, assuming everyone involved is properly evaluating the players in question.
These trades also aren’t constructed in purely objective fashion, since that would require the impossible— quantifying expiring contracts, draft picks and more. But they do stem from an objective analysis of the players involved, using everything from film study to the composite player score metric explained in depth here.
If you think your favorite team is giving up too much in a listed trade, you might need to tone down the homerism and stop overselling one of that organization’s assets. If the opposite is true, have even more faith in your squad. You’re too pessimistic about one of the assets!
Either way, remember that we’re not predicting what will come to pass, so much as providing the baseline for future evaluation.
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Team: Memphis Grizzlies
Age: 31
2018-19 Per-Game Stats: 20.0 points, 3.3 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.3 blocks
2018-19 Advanced Metrics: 0.135 WS/48, 87.89 TPA, 3.32 RPM, 10.11 Player Score
Fair-Value Trade: Memphis Grizzlies trade Omri Casspi and Mike Conley to the Utah Jazz for Derrick Favors, Ricky Rubio and a 2019 first-rounder (top-20 protected)
A few years ago, Mike Conley might have merited a significantly larger return. Now, a team should be able to get him by offering a pair of useful veterans who can slot into a starting lineup (Derrick Favors and Ricky Rubio) and a heavily protected first-rounder that could eventually turn into a pair of second-round selections.
So…what’s changed?
Conley is still playing at a remarkably high level, overcoming his declining speed on the defensive end by protecting the basketball at all costs and still thriving as a shot-creating scorer. He checks in at No. 19 on ESPN.com’s RPM Wins leaderboard, and viewing his season as a failure solely because of Memphis’ disappointing record would be fallacious.
But Father Time is relentless, and Conley is already 31 years old—the magical mark at which so many floor generals have begun precipitous drops over the years. Couple that with his remaining salary ($30.5 million this year, $32.5 million in 2019-20 and an early termination option for 2020-21’s $34.5 million), and he can’t possibly demand a return brimming with high-upside prospects and early first-round selections.
If the Grizzlies want to get out from under his contract, this is the kind of return for which they should be searching, especially because Rubio has an expiring deal while Favors is only inked through one more go-round.
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Team: New Orleans Pelicans
Age: 25
2018-19 Per-Game Stats: 29.3 points, 13.3 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 1.7 steals, 2.6 blocks
2018-19 Advanced Metrics: 0.263 WS/48, 290.51 TPA, 6.6 RPM, 21.912 Player Score
Fair-Value Trade: New Orleans Pelicans trade Anthony Davis, Cheick Diallo and Tim Frazier to the Los Angeles Lakers for Lonzo Ball, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Josh Hart, Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma, a 2019 first-round pick and a 20201 first-round pick (and whatever else they feel like offering)
If you’re still sold on any one of Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, Josh Hart or Kyle Kuzma as a guaranteed franchise centerpiece, you might want to remove the purple-and-gold-tinted glasses from the bridge of your nose and look at this more objectively.
Each member of that quartet still has plenty of upside laying dormant. They could very well be late-bloomers. But given the lack of progress they’ve displayed in 2018-19, as well as the glaring inadequacies on full display without LeBron James in the Los Angeles Lakers lineup, they can’t be viewed as untouchable in the ongoing Anthony Davis conversation—even all packaged together. That doesn’t change now that Davis is available, as reported by ESPN.com’s Adrian Wojnarowski.
Assuming the unibrowed big man re-signs and grants the Lake Show more than 1.5 seasons of production, his value could potentially dwarf the cumulative impact of the outgoing prospects. Superstars don’t grow on trees in the NBA, and he’s a top-five player when healthy.
Ball could become a star if he learns to shoot and remain aggressive, particularly in off-ball situations. Ingram has been a solid defender, but he remains too inefficient as a scorer and has failed to string together standout performances for significant durations. Kuzma is a potent scorer, but scoring, as opposed to superstars, does grow on trees in the NBA. Hart could become more than a poor man’s three-and-D candidate. Don’t write them off, but do remember they’ve combined for 9.77 RPM Wins in 2018-19. Davis alone, even while missing time with a finger injury, has 9.63 all on his lonesome.
Including four high-upside players and two first-round picks seems like a lot. It still may not be enough for a 25-year-old megastar of Davis’ caliber.
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Team: Memphis Grizzlies
Age: 34
2018-19 Per-Game Stats: 15.4 points, 8.7 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.2 blocks
2018-19 Advanced Metrics: 0.104 WS/48, 101.34 TPA, 3.16 RPM, 9.441 Player Score
Fair-Value Trade: Memphis Grizzlies trade Omri Casspi and Marc Gasol to the San Antonio Spurs for Pau Gasol, Patty Mills, Jakob Poeltl and a 2019 second-round pick
The Gasol brothers have changed locations in the same trade once before, and it ended up working out fairly well for both the Memphis Grizzlies and Los Angeles Lakers. This time around, the impact wouldn’t be quite as monumental.
While the San Antonio Spurs would get the centerpiece of the deal in Marc Gasol, who is continuing to play at a high level as a stretch-5 with tremendous defensive instincts but is also starting to show his age, the Grizzlies would get an intriguing young center and a chance to start over with a more well-defined rebuild.
But the point here isn’t the specifics of the trade so much as the diminished value of shopping around a 34-year-old Marc Gasol.
Poeltl (though intriguing, he doesn’t have an All-Star ceiling) and a second-round pick highlight the future assets going to Beale Street, while the elder Gasol brother and Patty Mills aren’t even on expiring contracts. Marc just won’t command much more, given his age and the unavoidable fact that he can opt into a $25.6 million deal for 2019-20, thereby limiting what another team can do during the feeding frenzy that will be 2019’s free-agency period.
Heading into the current campaign, FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO model forecasted Gasol would be worth only $20.6 million during 2019-20…through 2021-22. Combined. As in, all three seasons together. Not just during the year in which he can make an additional $5 million on top of that cumulative projection.
The early-season success he enjoyed should’ve upped those numbers a bit (they’re based on calculations run during the summer), but his salary still looms large in trade negotiations.
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Team: Orlando Magic
Age: 27
2018-19 Per-Game Stats: 13.9 points, 3.2 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.4 blocks
2018-19 Advanced Metrics: 0.065 WS/48, minus-32.02 TPA, minus-1.12 RPM, 0.09 Player Score
Fair-Value Trade: Orlando Magic trade D.J. Augustin and Terrence Ross to the Houston Rockets for Marquese Chriss, Brandon Knight and a 2019 second-round pick (via Memphis Grizzlies)
Terrence Ross is shooting 37.5 percent from beyond the arc this season and taking 6.1 long balls per game—numbers only 13 other qualified marksmen have proved capable of matching or exceeding in 2018-19. But because he struggles as a playmaker, relies on setup passes for much of his offense and struggles immensely on defense (minus-1.4 defensive box plus/minus and minus-1.38 defensive real plus/minus), he still hasn’t added much raw value to the Orlando Magic cause.
Our player score metric barely grades him out as an above-average commodity, and that would change if playing time weren’t a part of the equation (Ross ranks within the top 100 for total minutes in 2018-19). The Magic have seen their net rating drop 5.6 points per 100 possessions when this former Washington Husky is on the floor, giving him the team’s third-largest negative swing among rotation members, better than those of only Jerian Grant and Mohamed Bamba.
In the right location, Ross might shine. That’s why a team such as the Houston Rockets, one that heavily prioritizes deep shooting and off-ball athleticism next to James Harden, might be willing to take a flier while searching for more useful depth.
The allure of his volume-shooting numbers may even cause general managers to overpay. But in a value vacuum, the Magic shouldn’t expect much more than salary filler (Brandon Knight), a post-hype prospect (Marquese Chriss) and a second-round pick for his services.
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Team: Orlando Magic
Age: 28
2018-19 Per-Game Stats: 20.6 points, 12.0 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.1 blocks
2018-19 Advanced Metrics: 0.179 WS/48, 197.95 TPA, 4.62 RPM, 14.342 Player Score
Fair-Value Trade: Orlando Magic trade Jerian Grant and Nikola Vucevic to the Los Angeles Lakers for Lonzo Ball, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and a 2019 first-round pick (lottery protected)
On the leaderboard for win shares per 48 minutes, Nikola Vucevic sits at No. 51, surrounded by Jakob Poeltl and Ekpe Udoh. That’s already respectable, but some minuscule samples are in play there. Seventeen of his “superiors” have played fewer than 100 minutes in 2018-19. If we turn to metrics that incorporate volume, his positioning only grows more impressive.
He’s at No. 9 in NBA Math’s TPA, sandwiched between Paul George and Stephen Curry. Turn to ESPN.com’s RPM Wins, and Joel Embiid and Pascal Siakam bookend him at No. 14. He’s having a special season for the Orlando Magic, somehow willing them to a 0.8 net rating when he’s on the floor, showcasing both his efficient offensive game and underrated defensive acumen.
Were Vucevic under team control for years, he’d be worth quite a bit.
He’s in the heart of his athletic prime and only getting better, and his ability to knock down 37.5 percent of his triples while taking 3.1 per game makes him quite appealing in today’s space-it-out strategems. For a center-starved team in need of shooters, including a protected lottery pick and Lonzo Ball for him actually makes sense from a value standpoint. It likely won’t happen in reality, but the math supports such a swap. The guarantee of him spending the remainder of 2018-19 in Hollywood, as well as the possibility of him resigning, justifies the loss of a potential star in the midst of a disappointing season.
Were he on anything other than an expiring contract (granted, this might take the Los Angeles Lakers out of the running, considering their desire to keep the cap sheet clean for this summer’s spending frenzy), he’d be worth even more. Maybe that’s tough to believe, given his limited appearances on national television and his status as the centerpiece of a lottery-bound organization mired in a perpetual rebuild, but the value speaks for itself.
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @fromal09.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats accurate heading into games Jan. 28 and courtesy of Basketball Reference, NBA.com, PBPStats.com, NBA Math or ESPN.com.
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