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With the clock ticking toward Thursday’s NBA trade deadline, plenty of big names are tumbling around in the rumor mill.
Everybody knows Anthony Davis and the New Orleans Pelicans are headed for an imminent breakup, but how soon? Meanwhile, the Memphis Grizzlies are seemingly on the verge of breaking up their core, while buyers around the league are keeping an eye on vets toiling for losing teams.
Predictions made at a time like this—when leaks from agents and teams saturate the news cycle—is a sucker’s game. Only a fool would try to suss out the truth and forecast who’ll go where when disinformation and posturing immolate Twitter every 30 seconds.
I am that fool.
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The New Orleans Pelicans are hoping the desperate Los Angeles Lakers “overwhelm them [with a] historic haul of picks” for Anthony Davis, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. “That means Lakers offering [four] first-round and second-round picks as part of a Davis package,” he added.
The Lakers have reportedly pulled out of Davis trade discussions for the time being, according to Broderick Turner of the Los Angeles Times, but we’ll see how long that stance lasts.
It makes more sense for the Pelicans to trade Davis during the offseason rather than this week. The draft order will be settled, a greater number of interested parties can get their bids in and the Boston Celtics will finally be able to join in with a formal offer that could include more valuable picks and players than the Lakers can muster.
If the Lakers do offer four first-rounders, the Pels should consider pouncing on that deal. Even then, though, New Orleans may assume L.A.’s best offer will still be there in July. Why wouldn’t it be?
If the Lakers threaten to reduce their offer a few months from now, who loses in that scenario? New Orleans can still negotiate with the Celtics at that point, and there’ll be several other teams willing to offer intriguing packages for a one-year rental. The Lakers don’t have any leverage in that sense.
Basically, the Pelicans can call the Lakers’ bluff, buy themselves time to collect more offers this summer and still get a great return on AD—all while sitting him out down the stretch to improve their own draft position.
It may be dangerous to bet against the Lakers’ urgency. They aren’t working with an indefinite timeline. They have to build a winner before LeBron James‘ prime ends, and his decline should have commenced long ago. As great as James is, he’s on borrowed time.
But the Lakers’ available assets aren’t all that exciting, and the Pels have every incentive to wait. Plus, it probably feels good to stick it to Klutch Sports by stonewalling for a few more months.
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Let’s all agree we should want Mike Conley to wind up with the Utah Jazz. A professional, blue-collar star with virtually no weaknesses deserves to play competitive basketball. He won’t get that in Memphis.
Andy Larsen of the Salt Lake Tribune reported the Jazz’s offer for Conley included Ricky Rubio and a 2019 first-rounder, which should be enough to get the deal done. Conley is a fine point guard and a clear upgrade over Rubio—particularly in the playoffs, when opponents can capitalize on Rubio’s suspect shooting.
At the same time, getting a first-round pick for an aging guard owed $67 million over the next two full seasons would be a serious haul for the Grizzlies. There are scenarios in which Memphis might have to give up one of its own picks to get someone to take on that salary.
Not here, though. This construction works for both parties.
The Indiana Pacers might have been another suitor for Conley, but after losing Victor Oladipo for the year, they may be less inclined to make major additions. As such, Utah is in a particularly strong position.
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This isn’t a specific deadline prediction, per se, but it’s worth fudging the parameters to address a superstar and a few marquee franchises.
The Knicks cleared two max salary slots with their blockbuster Kristaps Porzingis trade, and no halfway competent franchise* would make such a move unless it…knew a few things. Like, for example, who might be available to occupy that precious cap space this summer.
Kevin Durant‘s looming free agency (and his unwillingness to shut down speculation about his future plans) has been a source of friction in Golden State. It was at the core of the shouting match between Draymond Green and KD in mid-November, and the Warriors remain uncertain about Durant’s plans.
Those two elements—the Knicks clearing cap space and Durant’s foggy future—wouldn’t be enough to merit a strong prediction on their own. But the endless whispers, winks and sly looks that arise whenever the Knicks-KD partnership gets mentioned close that speculative gap.
We still have to guess, but it feels like we have enough direct and circumstantial evidence to make an informed one.
Durant’s days with the Warriors are nearing their end. At this time next year, we’ll be asking what the Knicks can do at the deadline to provide KD and his other max-salaried running mate more help in New York.
*It is possible—in fact, it has repeatedly been confirmed over the last several years—that the Knicks are not a halfway competent franchise.
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John Wall‘s ruptured Achilles, which the Wizards announced Tuesday, will keep him out of action for at least a year and effectively eliminates the already remote possibility of Washington ever escaping from his massive supermax extension.
Wizards owner Ted Leonsis told reporters the team wouldn’t trade Wall, Bradley Beal or Otto Porter Jr. before the deadline, but that stance should change given these new circumstances. Beal could easily fetch the best return package, but the Wizards should be most reluctant to move him.
Instead, Washington should revisit the market for Porter.
The Sacramento Kings are the only team with significant cap space, which makes a deal for Porter’s salary ($27.3 million next year, $28.5 million player option in 2020-21) easier. Not only that, but the Kings also have a boatload of expiring contracts to send back, which would relieve Washington’s financial distress.
Sacramento has no history of attracting quality free agents, so having cap space this summer likely won’t be of much help. Instead, the Kings should prioritize adding (overpaid) talent now via trade.
If the Kings package the expiring deals of Zach Randolph, Iman Shumpert, Ben McLemore and Willie Cauley-Stein while taking back Porter and Ian Mahinmi, the Wizards could clear a whopping $42.7 million off next year’s books.
Get it done, Wizards.
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Marc Gasol is such a tricky trade case.
The 34-year-old has a $25.6 million player option for next year, so he only makes sense on a team that wants to win immediately. That narrows the field considerably, to the point that predicting Gasol remains in Memphis feels safest.
Then again, it’s hard to imagine the Grizzlies getting past the trade deadline with him still on the roster—particularly if they trade Mike Conley as well. That would almost feel like punishment for Gasol, who’s done more than enough for the franchise to deserve better.
We could debate whether landing with the Charlotte Hornets for a package centered on Malik Monk, salary filler and picks counts as “better,” but at least it’d get Gasol closer to meaningful basketball this spring. Charlotte, always obsessed with present relevance—often at the expense of future planning—would likely be fine with Gasol opting into the final year of his deal in 2019-20 as well.
Shams Charania of The Athletic and Stadium reported such a deal was in the works Tuesday.
The idea of Gasol teaming with Kemba Walker in pursuit of 41 wins and a low playoff seed may feel disappointing. But it’d be an even bigger bummer if Gasol had to stick it out in Memphis.
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The fit between Houston and Kent Bazemore has been too good for too long, and the Rockets have been interested since July, according to Kelly Iko of Rockets Wire.
Brandon Knight’s deal and a willingness to give up first-round picks makes Houston a sensible trade partner, as the rebuilding Hawks should be happy to take on some bad salary with a future asset attached in exchange for a 29-year-old with a $19.3 million player option in 2019-20. Bazemore can play—he’s a career 35.6 percent shooter from deep and can passably defend both wing spots—but he doesn’t make sense in Atlanta’s plans.
But if the Rockets added him, they’d start to get their roster closer to what it looked like a year ago. Houston can never have enough wings who’ll willingly fire away from the perimeter, and it’s fun to imagine a playoff lineup that includes James Harden, Chris Paul, Bazemore, PJ Tucker and Clint Capela that’d get Eric Gordon back to his bench role.
Perhaps Bazemore isn’t a star on the level of the other guys we’ve mentioned, but his capacity to make a difference for this particular Rockets team is significant.
All salary-cap info courtesy of Basketball Insiders unless otherwise noted.
from Viral News Show http://bit.ly/2GgaqJi
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