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Cleveland Cavaliers
Biggest Need in Free Agency: Combo forward
Cleveland’s most impactful additions over the summer will come via the draft and trades. Making a meaningful splash in free agency isn’t an option until 2020.
Assuming they waive JR Smith ($3.9 million partial guarantee), the Cavaliers are still looking at a payroll dangerously close, if not above, the $132 million luxury-tax line. Owner Dan Gilbert isn’t going to let that fly on a non-contender.
It won’t be hard to skirt the tax. The Cavaliers come close to ducking it entirely without doing anything else if they don’t land a top-two pick in the draft lottery. Brokering a buyout with one of their veterans—say, Tristan Thompson—might take care of the rest, and they’ll have no trouble shedding money in trades if they’re open to taking back contracts that spill into 2020-21.
Nothing the Cavaliers can realistically do will leave them with more than the mid-level exception. And even that may be a stretch. They’ll need to dump tons of money to access the full MLE ($9.2 million), and teams without immediate playoff aspirations don’t have the incentive to tap into the mini mid-level ($5.7 million).
The Cavaliers also have to consider David Nwaba, a non-Bird free agent who will eat up part of whatever MLE they have if bringing him back is a priority. So, while they need a combo forward to diversify their guard-heavy setup, they don’t have the capacity to sign one outright unless he’s coming off the clearance rack.
Potential Targets: Mario Hezonja, Furkan Korkmaz, Stanley Johnson (restricted)
Memphis Grizzlies:
Biggest Need in Free Agency: Cheap starting-lineup candidates under 25 (preferably playmaking bigs or larger wings)
Memphis’ free-agency approach is difficult to map out without knowing whether the team will commit to a rebuild. It won’t take much for the Grizzlies to sell themselves on an immediate comeback if their top-seven draft position holds—their pick goes to Boston if it falls outside the top eight—and both Jonas Valanciunas and CJ Miles pick up their player options.
At that point, with Kyle Anderson and Jaren Jackson Jr. in tow, why not keep Mike Conley? And re-sign Delon Wright (restricted)? And maybe even hold onto Avery Bradley ($2 million guaranteed)?
Going that route dictates that the Grizzlies cut costs to sidestep the tax. They’re better off starting over, but the pull to avoid a full-tilt renovation is strong in a smaller market.
Either way, the Grizzlies won’t have more than the full-sized MLE to spend. And aiming for a 2020 postseason berth doesn’t give them carte blanche to add more elder statesmen—or even shell out a contract like they gave to Anderson last year (four years, $37.2 million).
“Cheap and youngish” has to be the Grizzlies’ offseason mantra. Unless they lean into a reset, they need players who fit a to-be-determined timeline without clogging up the books.
Potential Targets: Jordan Bell, Trey Lyles (restricted), Noah Vonleh
Minnesota Timberwolves
Biggest Need in Free Agency: Three-and-D wing
Please officially welcome the Timberwolves to Club Tank. They’ve only just arrived. It initially appeared they might be content to hover around ninth or 10th place in the Western Conference, but they’ve since shut down, um, well, almost everyone.
Angling for next year’s postseason is in play. Karl-Anthony Towns, Dario Saric, Robert Covington, Josh Okogie and whoever gets taken with this year’s pick make for an intriguing asset base. And though the Timberwolves won’t have cap space, they can re-sign Tyus Jones (restricted) or Derrick Rose while retaining access to the non-taxpayer’s mid-level.
Point guard vaults to the top of their shopping list if neither Jones nor Rose sticks around. Jeff Teague is the human embodiment of “eh” these days, and Andrew Wiggins is no point forward.
Three-and-D specialists take centerstage for now. The Timberwolves have Covington, but that’s about it. Wiggins (with his 33 percent career average from three) is never going to qualify, and Okogie, while hitting 35 percent of his treys in recent weeks, needs to shoot league average (35.5 percent) from beyond the arc for a half-season before earning the specialist designation.
Finding that player within Minnesota’s max price point ($9.2 million) will be difficult. It should not be impossible—particularly when, as of now, the Timberwolves don’t need to emphasize youth in the same vein as the Cavs or Grizzlies.
Potential Targets: Reggie Bullock, Dorian Finney-Smith (restricted), Wesley Matthews
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