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Duke’s Zion WilliamsonSean Rayford/Associated Press
The Sweet 16 of the 2019 NCAA men’s college basketball tournament is set, and we haven’t seen this much chalk since the days of elementary school blackboards.
All 12 of the No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3 seeds are still alive, which is exceedingly rare, if not a first in tournament history. Heck, in each of the previous nine NCAA tournaments, there were a maximum of six out of eight No. 1 and No. 2 seeds still standing at this point. Going 12-for-12 on the top seeds is wild.
Now that we’re down to 16, though, who has the best chance to win this thing over the next two weeks?
Normally, the bracket is complete chaos after the first weekend and it feels like a No. 3 or a No. 5 seed has the simplest route to a title—not this year. With the exception of Virginia getting a little boost from drawing No. 12 seed Oregon in the Sweet 16, these odds aren’t much different from pre-tourney expectations.
Odds are based on a combination of how good each team looked through two games and how easy their remaining paths are. Teams are listed in ascending order of likelihood to win the title. Odds sum to 100 percent and are not intended to reflect actual betting lines in Vegas—which tend to sum to around 135 percent.
1 of 16
Kenny WootenChris Carlson/Associated Press
The Road Ahead
No one thought Oregon belonged in the NCAA tournament until it won the Pac-12 tournament. Few thought the Ducks could reach the Sweet 16. And you won’t find many people outside of Eugene who think this team will get past Virginia and either Tennessee or Purdue to reach the Final Four. But the Ducks have won 10 straight and just keep proving the doubters wrong.
Reason to Buy
The Ducks have been crushing it on defense during this winning streak, holding eight of those 10 opponents to 54 points or fewer. Some quick KenPom math shows they have allowed 542 points on 648 possessions, or 0.836 points per possession. That’s some Virginia-level defensive dominance right there. They even held Ethan Happ to 12 points and eight rebounds with five turnovers in the first round, so they aren’t messing around.
Reason to Sell
All of that defense came against average-to-below-average offenses, and there aren’t any of those left in the tournament. Turning those screws against good shooters will be difficult, and Oregon isn’t good enough on offense to win on nights when the defense is getting torched.
Will Cut Down Nets If…
The Kenny Wooten and Ehab Amin combo continues to destroy opposing teams. Wooten is eighth in the nation in block percentage, while Amin is fifth in steal percentage. Getting past both of them to get the ball to the rim is a tough ask on any possession, and Oregon might have a few more upsets in its future if teams are unable to navigate that pair.
Title Chances: 0.5 percent
2 of 16
Kerry Blackshear Jr.Yong Teck Lim/Getty Images
The Road Ahead
Virginia Tech took care of a couple of double-digit seeds in Saint Louis and Liberty, but business is about to pick up in a hurry. Duke is on deck. If the Hokies can get past their ACC overlords—whom they beat one month ago, by the way—the Elite Eight matchup with either Michigan State or LSU will be a tough one.
Reason to Buy
These dudes can shoot. The Hokies made at least 40 percent of their three-point attempts in each of the first two tournament games and are sitting just below 40 percent for the year. Even big man Kerry Blackshear Jr. has a 34 percent stroke and isn’t afraid to use it. With point guard Justin Robinson back in the mix after missing the final six weeks of the season, this is a dangerous offense.
Reason to Sell
Blackshear is the only big man on the roster, so Virginia Tech isn’t great on the glass. The Hokies play a zone defense that gives up a lot of threes, too. So, a team with dominant big men can win the battle in the paint, or a team with great perimeter shooters can hit a lot of shots against them. And a team like North Carolina or Virginia that can do both can crush them.
Will Cut Down Nets If…
They get red hot from distance. There was an 11-game stretch earlier this season in which the Hokies shot 47.6 percent from three while making 11.6 per game, so this isn’t an unreasonable request. If they can put together a four-game run with numbers like those, they could do this thing.
Title Chances: 1 percent
3 of 16
Naz ReidMike Ehrmann/Getty Images
The Road Ahead
It’d be hard to dream up a tougher draw than this. LSU has to first get through should-have-been-a-No. 1-seed Michigan State before running into Duke 48 hours later. If the Tigers even reach the Final Four, it would be a minor miracle. If they then proceed to win two more games against some combination of Gonzaga, Michigan, North Carolina, Kentucky, Virginia and Tennessee, it would be one of the most improbable runs by a No. 3 seed in tournament history.
Reason to Buy
We haven’t seen much of either of LSU’s strengths through two rounds, but this team usually dominates with offensive rebounds and steals. The Tigers rank top-10 on KenPom in both of those categories. That aggressive style also results in a lot of trips to the free-throw line, where LSU shoots better than 75 percent.
Reason to Sell
The “No Will Wade” factor was probably overblown by the national media, but it’s still a legitimate concern. Yale and Maryland made better halftime/in-game adjustments than LSU, outscoring the Tigers in the second half. And with coaches like Tom Izzo and Mike Krzyzewski on the horizon, that could become an even bigger problem. In more year-to-date news, LSU is not a good three-point shooting team, and it is not great on the defensive glass.
Will Cut Down Nets If…
Tremont Waters goes into “Kemba Walker Mode.” The sophomore point guard doesn’t get the glitz and glamour of a Zion Williamson or Ja Morant, but he is one of the most valuable players in the tournament. His ability to force turnovers and create offense—either for himself or his teammates—can swing the momentum of any game in an instant. He was held to 27 points between the first two contests, but we all know he can pop off for 30 in a game.
Title Chances: 1.5 percent
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Terance MannRob Carr/Getty Images
The Road Ahead
Deja vu, Seminoles fans? It’ll be a Sweet 16 rematch from last year, pitting Florida State against Gonzaga. The Seminoles won the 2018 battle by a 15-point margin, so they may well make a return trip to the Elite Eight for what would be another same-round replay of last year’s loss to Michigan. Avenge those losses and Florida State might have a Final Four showdown with a Duke squad it lost to twice this season.
Reason to Buy
Florida State has won 16 of its last 18 games. The two exceptions were played away from home against Duke and North Carolina. That’s an impressive run for one of the most athletically gifted rosters in the country. That isn’t to say there’s much NBA potential on this team, but the Seminoles can outjump, outrun and outhustle just about anyone.
Reason to Sell
They don’t shoot well. The ‘Noles barely survived a cold-shooting performance in the opener against Vermont only because they made 24 more free throws than the Catamounts. And that wasn’t an isolated problem. During the regular season, FSU shot below 42 percent from the field 11 times. It went 5-6 in those contests with three overtime victories—and the other two wins were against offense-anemic Georgia Tech.
Will Cut Down Nets If…
Terance Mann and Mfiondu Kabengele remain in takeover mode. Florida State has a deep rotation of assets, but those two are the stars, combining for 40 points in each of the team’s first two tournament games. If Mann and Kabengele keep showing up like that, FSU can beat anyone.
Title Chances: 2 percent
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Jared HarperRick Bowmer/Associated Press
The Road Ahead
Smashing Kansas in the second round was just the beginning of an uphill climb through blue-blood waters for a program that has never been to the Final Four. Auburn will draw North Carolina in the Sweet 16 before what would likely be a rendezvous with Kentucky in the Elite Eight.
Reason to Buy
Auburn leads the nation in turnover percentage on defense, and it shoots threes like they’re going out of style. More importantly, the Tigers are making those three-point attempts at an incredible rate. They have drained at least a dozen triples in seven straight games, and they are now 25-2 when recording at least eight steals. Before the tournament, I coined it the “pluck it and chuck it” strategy, and it is lethal.
Reason to Sell
Auburn gives up a lot of second-chance opportunities courtesy of one of the worst defensive rebounding rates in the country. It also gives up a lot of first-chance points via the long ball. As great as the Tigers are at blocks and steals, they’re barely top-50 in adjusted defensive efficiency because they don’t do anything else well.
Will Cut Down Nets If…
It keeps shooting and defending this well. Auburn is going to give up points, and it is going to lose the rebounding battle against a team with competent big men. But it can still beat any team with its mixture of threes, steals and blocks. Enough of those momentum-shifting plays and the Tigers will keep advancing.
Title Chances: 2.5 percent
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Armoni BrooksMichael Wyke/Associated Press
The Road Ahead
Time to find out if Houston can sink or swim. Overall strength of schedule was a big question for the Cougars, which is why they only received a No. 3 seed with a 31-3 record. But they could prove a lot of people wrong with a pair of blue-blood victories over Kentucky and North Carolina this week.
Reason to Buy
Scoring against this Houston defense is the complete opposite of a picnic. The Cougars lead the nation in three-point percentage allowed and rank fifth in two-point percentage. Neither Georgia State nor Ohio State was able to reach 60 points, which was a common occurrence in Houston games this season.
Reason to Sell
In Corey Davis and Armoni Brooks, Houston has a pair of upperclassmen who have each made at least 110 threes this season. And yet, this team doesn’t shoot that well. Davis and Brooks both shoot around 38 percent from deep, but the rest of the team struggles from the perimeter. And aside from big men Brison Gresham and Chris Harris, who don’t shoot often, Houston’s conversion rate inside the arc isn’t great, either.
Will Cut Down Nets If…
This tournament is destined to have a Cinderella story after all. Aside from Gonzaga, this is the only team left from a non-Power Six conference. Maybe a No. 3 seed from the AAC doesn’t count as a Cinderella to you, but Houston winning it all in this remaining field would be one heck of an underdog story. The Cougars will need to keep bringing the pain on defense and hope Davis and Brooks can carry the offense, but it’s possible.
Title Chances: 3 percent
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Carsen EdwardsElise Amendola/Associated Press
The Road Ahead
Smashing defending national champion Villanova in the second round was only the beginning. Just to reach the Final Four, Purdue will need to get through Tennessee and Virginia, each of which spent the entire season in the AP Top 10. The Boilermakers look great thus far, but that is a brutal path for anyone.
Reason to Buy
Good Carsen Edwards has resurfaced. After struggling for most of February, Edwards shot 13-of-28 from three-point range and scored 68 points in the first two rounds. He scored just under half of Purdue’s points in each game, pacing what has been an elite offense when he shows up.
Reason to Sell
Purdue’s three-point defense was on point in the first two rounds, but that has been an issue for much of the season. Nine opponents shot better than 41 percent and made at least 10 triples against this team. Matt Haarms is a one-man eraser against teams that try to score at the rim, but shooting over the top of this defense is a tried-and-true strategy.
Will Cut Down Nets If…
Both Edwards and the three-point defense are here to stay. Purdue had its lapses en route to nine losses, but this has been one of the most efficient teams all year. The Boilermakers were generally much better at Mackey Arena than elsewhere, but so far, so good. If they continue to play this well against more well-rounded opponents, anything is possible.
Title Chances: 4 percent
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Jarrett CulverJeff Roberson/Associated Press
The Road Ahead
Texas Tech had little difficulty eliminating Northern Kentucky and Buffalo, but life against the other title contenders will be another story. The Red Raiders will have a grind-it-out defensive battle with Michigan in the Sweet 16, followed by either Gonzaga or Florida State. Either way, it’ll be quite the 48-hour turnaround from the low-scoring affair with the Wolverines.
Reason to Buy
Texas Tech’s defense is lethal. Matt Mooney, Jarrett Culver and Davide Moretti provide an outstanding first line of D along the perimeter, and Tariq Owens and Norense Odiase are great rim protectors if and when teams are able to get by the turnover forcers. Neither opponent reached 60 points in the first two rounds, and that probably won’t be the last time that happens in a Texas Tech game.
Reason to Sell
With Moretti struggling to find his three-point stroke in Tulsa (0-of-7), TTU’s perimeter shooting becomes a minor concern. Culver and Mooney can still hit them, but Moretti’s second-half breakout is what paced the Red Raiders to the Big 12 regular-season title. Texas Tech is also an average rebounding team and could run into some trouble in that department before much longer.
Will Cut Down Nets If…
Culver puts the team on his back. Last year, I thought Texas Tech’s Keenan Evans was our best hope for a Kemba Walker type of one-man run, and the Red Raiders have that distinction again this year. Culver had 29 in the first round against Northern Kentucky, and he may have just been warming up. (He wasn’t as impressive against Buffalo, but he still led the team with 16 points.) Don’t be surprised if this soon-to-be lottery pick rides off into the sunset with one hell of a run.
Title Chances: 5.5 percent
9 of 16
Grant WilliamsElsa/Getty Images
The Road Ahead
After scraping out two early wins, Tennessee better bring its “A” game the rest of the way. Up next will be a high-scoring affair with Purdue, likely followed by a points-at-a-premium battle with Virginia. The Volunteers have never been to the Final Four in program history, and they certainly have their work cut out to get there this year.
Reason to Buy
Tennessee’s interior game is among the best in the tournament. Grant Williams gets most of the love, and deservedly so. But Kyle Alexander and John Fulkerson are excellent rebounders and shot-blockers, giving the Volunteers the total package in the paint. On both ends of the floor, they rank top-20 in two-point percentage and block percentage.
Reason to Sell
Tennessee has already pushed the “survive and advance” axiom to the limit. The Volunteers never pulled away from Colgate, and they somehow went to overtime with Iowa after opening up a 44-19 lead in the first half. Colgate drained 15 threes, which has been a legitimate concern for this defense all season (see: both recent losses to Auburn and frankly any game against a team that can shoot).
Will Cut Down Nets If…
They can keep opposing threes and offensive rebounds under control. We know Tennessee can score about as well as anyone. Stopping the opposing team from keeping pace is the question mark. The Vols are a perfect 28-0 when allowing 81 points or fewer, but they have been blitzed a few times.
Title Chances: 6 percent
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Zavier Simpson and John BeileinAndy Lyons/Getty Images
The Road Ahead
Up first for the Wolverines is the ultimate defensive showdown with Texas Tech. First team to score 45 might win that game. After that, they’ll need to go to the opposite extreme against Gonzaga’s otherworldly offense. If they can win those back-to-back battles, no reason to doubt their ability to get another two wins the following week.
Reason to Buy
Michigan’s defense is outrageously good. In the first round, the Wolverines held a good-shooting Montana offense to 55 points. Not satisfied enough with that effort, they went out and allowed just 49 points in the second round against Florida. They have now limited four of their last five opponents—all NCAA tournament teams—to 55 points or fewer.
Reason to Sell
This offense is no stranger to cold spells. It wasn’t a problem against Montana, but there was a stretch of 10 minutes, 15 seconds in the second half against Florida during which the Wolverines scored just five points (three of them on free throws). They had a similar problem against Michigan State in the second half of the Big Ten Championship Game, allowing a 13-point lead to turn into a tie game in a hurry. The defense usually does enough to get the win anyway, but it’s still a concern.
Will Cut Down Nets If…
The defense and Zavier Simpson continue to deliver. Michigan’s top scorer rotates on an almost nightly basis, but Simpson is the stabilizing force who keeps this well-oiled machine running. The junior point guard had a triple-double earlier this season against Ohio State, and he put up nine points, nine rebounds and nine assists in Saturday’s win over Florida. When he’s dropping dimes like that, it is beyond difficult to beat Michigan.
Title Chances: 6.5 percent
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Nati Harnik/Associated Press
The Road Ahead
Michigan State will draw LSU in the Sweet 16 prior to a possible date with Duke in the Elite Eight. Getting past both of those elite turnover-forcing defenses would be quite the feat for a team which has struggled with turnovers all season long and posted a minus-16 in that category Saturday night against Minnesota.
Reason to Buy
The Spartans haven’t been assisting on nearly as many field goals during the tournament as they did during the regular season, but this Cassius Winston-led bunch shares the rock as well as any team has in recent years. This results in good looks at the rim on just about every possession. Sparty also has an outstanding interior defense, ranking second in the nation in two-point field-goal defense.
Reason to Sell
The turnover numbers are ghastly, and a season full of injuries has left this team with no depth. Even if Nick Ward (hand) is back to full strength for the Sweet 16, Michigan State doesn’t go much deeper than six unless it’s necessary. And with Ward and Xavier Tillman no strangers to occasional foul issues, that might be a problem.
Will Cut Down Nets If…
The secondary scorers shine. Matt McQuaid hit seven threes and scored 27 points in the Big Ten Championship Game, and Kenny Goins had five double-doubles during the regular season. Neither of those starters has shone up in the tournament. Winston is a stone-cold stud, but he can’t do it alone now that the competition is getting much stiffer.
Title Chances: 8 percent
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Keldon JohnsonSam Greenwood/Getty Images
The Road Ahead
Kentucky will draw 33-3 Houston in the Sweet 16 before a likely rematch with North Carolina in the Elite Eight. The Wildcats defeated the Tar Heels on a neutral floor back in December. But as long as we’re talking about history, they also lost twice to Tennessee and got walloped by 34 against Duke to open the season. That might be the “revenge tour” they need to go through if they get to the Final Four.
Reason to Buy
The Wildcats won games this season against North Carolina, Tennessee, Kansas, Auburn, Mississippi State and Louisville, among others. That’s quite the variety of quality competition. Even at less than full strength (no PJ Washington), they were able to eliminate an excellent Wofford club in the second round. If they keep defending the three-point arc like they did in the first two rounds, they might be the best team in the field.
Reason to Sell
Is Washington going to return? The biggest reason Kentucky was able to beat those teams during the regular season was because Washington blossomed in a huge way during his sophomore campaign. There’s still a lot of talent without him out there, but knocking off title contenders without one of the most valuable players in the country is a tall task.
Will Cut Down Nets If…
Washington comes back and Tyler Herro rediscovers his stroke. Herro is 1-of-8 from three-point range thus far in the tournament, and he couldn’t buy an interior bucket against Wofford, either. Normally a dude who can just go get buckets when necessary, Kentucky is eventually going to need that version of Herro to show up.
Title Chances: 9 percent
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Rui HachimuraRick Bowmer/Associated Press
The Road Ahead
Gonzaga faces a familiar foe in the Sweet 16, running into Florida State for the second consecutive year. Should the Bulldogs avenge last year’s loss to the Seminoles, it’ll be a classic unstoppable force, immovable object argument between this elite offense and the fierce D of either Michigan or Texas Tech.
Reason to Buy
Aside from a couple of offensive duds late in the year against the muck-it-up defense of Saint Mary’s, the Zags have been scoring at an astronomical rate. They lead the nation at 88.6 points per game, even though they don’t play at a particularly fast pace. As it turns out, you score a lot when the fifth-most noteworthy starter (Corey Kispert) is a 38 percent three-point shooter—and when impact players like Killian Tillie, Geno Crandall and Filip Petrusev are coming off the bench.
Reason to Sell
It’s hard to find much fault with Gonzaga, but this team doesn’t force many turnovers, and it has had some major issues on the defensive glass. While the Bulldogs do a great job of dragging out defensive possessions before contesting shots, they tend to struggle with teams that can shoot. North Carolina (1.23), Duke (1.21), Creighton (1.21) and Tennessee (1.12) all averaged better than 1.1 points per possession against Gonzaga, and Baylor (1.06) wasn’t far behind that club in the second round.
Will Cut Down Nets If…
Brandon Clarke and Rui Hachimura shoulder the load for the next two weeks. With the exception of Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett, this was the most unstoppable duo in college basketball this season—and they bested Williamson and Barrett on a neutral court in November. Improved defensive rebounding would also be a big key to a title push, but Gonzaga could ride these two forwards to its first national championship.
Title Chances: 10 percent
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Coby WhiteTony Dejak/Associated Press
The Road Ahead
North Carolina more than survived its first battle with an aggressive, turnover-forcing defense (Washington), and now it has to get through another one in the form of red-hot Auburn. That might be the start of an SEC gauntlet with Kentucky the likely draw in the Elite Eight and Tennessee the potential Final Four opponent.
Reason to Buy
The Tar Heels just kill teams with speed and rebounds. Through two rounds, North Carolina is plus-50 in rebound margin—which is so unreal I had to check the math three times to confirm it. Luke Maye almost out-rebounded Washington by himself. And when Coby White and Co. get out in open space, it’s curtains.
Reason to Sell
North Carolina doesn’t force many turnovers, and the defense is susceptible to the long ball. As such, it’s not uncommon for teams with good perimeter shooting to put together some runs against the Tar Heels. In the home loss to Virginia, the Cavaliers shot 11-of-20 from deep and buried UNC with threes late in the second half.
Will Cut Down Nets If…
It continues to dominate the glass and keeps hitting threes. It doesn’t matter how good you are; if you let North Carolina shoot 40 percent from three and out-rebound you by 20, you’re going to get crushed. Iona hit 15 threes, and that game was still a blowout in the end. Even title contenders will have similar fates if they can’t keep North Carolina off the boards.
Title Chances: 11 percent
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Kyle Guy (5) and Ty Jerome (11)Streeter Lecka/Getty Images
The Road Ahead
At long last, someone who gets to face what should be an easy opponent in the Sweet 16. Granted, nothing is easy at this stage of the tournament, but drawing No. 12 Oregon is quite the edge compared to what the other No. 1 and No. 2 seeds have to deal with next week. Barring an upset in that game, the Cavaliers will get either Tennessee or Purdue in the Elite Eight, either of which will be a great showdown between an efficient offense and this efficient defense.
Reason to Buy
Virginia ranks top-three nationally in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. The Wahoos make threes at a 40 percent clip, and they hold opponents below 28 percent. They rarely commit turnovers. They’re solid on the glass and block a fair number of shots. This team is the total package. They should have been the pre-tournament favorites to win it all.
Reason to Sell
Virginia survived the initial scare from Gardner-Webb, but we’re still talking about the team that lost to UMBC last year and a coach who has never been to the Final Four. Similar to Sean Miller’s stigma in recent years, until Tony Bennett gets to the national semifinals, we’ll have no choice but to repeatedly wonder if he can. Aside from that, though, no cause for concern here.
Will Cut Down Nets If…
They can undo the curse and either avoid Zion Williamson or finally beat Duke. Virginia won 29 of its first 31 contests, and the only exceptions were games against the Blue Devils. They are equipped to beat anyone. They just need to avoid the “here we go again” feelings from yesteryear if things start to unravel at any point.
Title Chances: 12 percent
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Zion WilliamsonSean Rayford/Associated Press
The Road Ahead
Duke has a rematch with ACC foe Virginia Tech in the Sweet 16. The Hokies beat the Blue Devils a few weeks ago when Zion Williamson was out, but VT didn’t have its star (Justin Robinson), either. Should be a completely different game. Beyond that, Michigan State, Gonzaga and possibly Round IV with North Carolina seem to be the most likely path. Even for the favorites, this won’t be easy.
Reason to Buy
Duke has the best player in the country in Zion Williamson, and if RJ Barrett isn’t second-best overall, he’s certainly No. 2 among those left in the tournament. (Miss you, Ja Morant.) Even if everyone else is cold, that duo has shown itself capable of carrying this team. And Duke’s defense is phenomenal—struggles with UCF notwithstanding.
Reason to Sell
Three-point shooting (30.7 percent) has been Duke’s season-long bugaboo, and it almost eliminated the Blue Devils in the second round. They made 10 of 25, so that seems like a silly statement in retrospect, but UCF was leaving Tre Jones and Jordan Goldwire wide-open and was content to live with the result. That duo shot 2-of-11, and it seems safe to assume we’ll see similar strategies against Duke moving forward.
Will Cut Down Nets If…
It figures out how to deal with all of the lane clogging. Even before UCF, teams were only really respecting the perimeter shot of Barrett and Cam Reddish and focusing the rest of their energy on keeping Williamson from adding to his highlight reel. Most teams aren’t as effective at it as UCF was because not many teams have a Tacko Fall protecting the rim. But Jones, Goldwire and even Williamson are going to continue to get open threes. What they do with them will determine this year’s champion.
Title Chances: 17.5 percent
Kerry Miller covers men’s college basketball and college football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @kerrancejames.
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